Gold and silver prices are heading into a potentially volatile week as investors turn their attention to two major events: the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
Precious metals rallied strongly last week as a weaker U.S. dollar, falling expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike and concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook supported demand. Gold moved above $4,500 per ounce and traded above $4,600, while silver held above $69 and briefly approached the $70 level.
PCE Inflation in Focus
The first major test for gold and silver will come from the latest U.S. PCE inflation data, due Wednesday, August 26.
The PCE price index is closely watched by the Federal Reserve because it is its preferred measure of inflation. Markets will pay particular attention to core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices and provides a clearer indication of underlying inflation pressure.
Current expectations point to a relatively modest increase in core PCE of around 0.2% month-on-month, with annual inflation expected to remain around 3.2%.
A softer-than-expected inflation reading could strengthen expectations that the Fed will eventually ease monetary policy. Lower interest-rate expectations would potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, creating a supportive environment for gold and silver.
Conversely, a hotter PCE reading could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy. Higher yields and a stronger dollar would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals and could trigger some short-term profit-taking.
Jackson Hole Could Create Bigger Volatility
While PCE will provide an important economic signal, the bigger market-moving event could be the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday, August 28.
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium takes place from August 27 to 29 in Wyoming, with this year’s theme focused on financial innovation and its implications for payments and monetary policy.
Warsh’s appearance is particularly important because it will be his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve chair. Investors will closely examine his comments for clues about how the Fed is balancing persistent inflation against signs of weakness in the labour market.
Recent market expectations have shifted significantly. Expectations for a September Fed rate hike have declined following softer inflation and employment signals, helping push gold higher. Reuters reported that September rate-hike expectations had fallen to around one-third by August 17, compared with more than 50% a month earlier.
What It Means for Gold
Gold’s recent rally has been closely linked to lower expectations for aggressive Fed tightening.
If PCE inflation comes in softer and Warsh adopts a less hawkish tone, the combination could push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower. This would potentially provide another boost to gold.
Gold has already demonstrated strong momentum, breaking above $4,500 and moving above $4,600 late last week. However, after such a sharp advance, the market could also experience profit-taking if economic data or Fed commentary disappoints bullish investors.
The key question is therefore whether the next move will be a continuation of the rally or a temporary correction.
Silver Could Be More Volatile
Silver may experience even larger price swings than gold.
The metal has benefited from the broader precious-metals rally and recently traded above $69, briefly touching $70.
Unlike gold, silver has both monetary and industrial demand. This gives silver additional exposure to expectations for global economic growth. A dovish shift from the Fed could support both investment demand and industrial sentiment, potentially providing silver with additional upside.
However, silver’s higher volatility also means that any sudden rise in bond yields or the U.S. dollar could trigger a sharper correction.
A Crucial Week for Precious Metals
The coming week could therefore establish the next major direction for gold and silver.
A combination of softer PCE inflation and dovish Fed commentary would likely be bullish for precious metals, while stronger inflation and hawkish guidance could pressure prices.
Investors should also watch U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar alongside the economic headlines. Gold’s recent gains have been strongly influenced by movements in both markets, making them important confirmation signals for the next move.
With gold already trading at elevated levels and silver testing $70, the PCE report and Jackson Hole speech could determine whether the current precious-metals rally has further room to run—or whether the market needs to consolidate before its next move.
For gold and silver investors, August 26 and August 28 could be the two most important dates of the week.
Disclaimer: All content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Precious metals investments involve financial risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
